ECONOMY

UPDATE AS OF APRIL 2020

 

With COVID-19, we have entered a new phase of economic life in America. With 17 Million unemployment claims filed nationally in three weeks and most of the US under "stay at home" measures, we are uncertain about our economic future.

The need for talking points regarding the economy is gone. There are only two talking points for the 2020 election.

1) Are you better off today than you were in 2017? (Hint: The employment rate is expected to soar, at least in the short term. all Job gains have been eradicated.)

2) How is your 401K doing? (Hint: The stock market is at the same valuation as it was in January of 2017 when Trump took office)

AS OF 2019

 

  • Tariffs are properly called “import taxes” and are paid by individuals and corporations as part of the price of goods. Money is not paid to the government. 8/18/19 – “The New York Federal Reserve Bank estimates that, to date, the administration’s tariff policy has cost the median earner $831 per year, nearly offsetting the $930 per year benefit from the 2017 tax cut. In the long term, tariffs raise costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, eroding our competitive advantage.”

  • There are signs of recession -- manufacturing dip, inverted yield curve, use of low interest rated to "goose" the economy

  • Continued use of low interest rates during a strong economy means that this "tool" cannot be used during a recession

  • Tax cuts benefited corporations and the top 10%. The tax cuts were paid for by deficit spending that is larger than predicted. There was no trickle down.

  • Individual tax cuts will expire. Corporate tax cuts will not.

  • Tax cuts were used by corporations to buy back stock while there are limited results of investing those gains into the US economy beyond already planned expansion

  • The US economic growth is roughly the same as it was during the Obama administration

  • Job creation is roughly the same as during the Obama administration.

  • The average unemployment rate is lower

  • Farmers -- Losing the world’s most populous country as an export market has been a major blow to the agriculture industry. Total American agricultural exports to China were $24 billion in 2014 and fell to $9.1 billion last year, . Exports of farm products to China fell by $1.3 billion in the first half of the year, the agriculture group said this month.

  • Farmers are receiving a bailout from the Trump administration larger than the GM bailout and are not required to pay it back

  • Canadian wheat exports to China have “rocketed” this year, while exports from the United States have plunged. Potentially losing long term markets for agricultural products.

  • The Trump Economy in 15 charts

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